Over the last two summers a large number of field studies and analyses have been carried out, and the results of these are to be used to provide a better description of the project, its consequences and specific details. Although not all of the reports have been completed (as of November 2009), it is possible to present customised key figures for parts of the project.
Why do the figures change?
As we get further into the feasibility study, we learn more and more about the project. Furthermore, as results are acquired, it becomes relevant to adjust the figures. This is done so that a picture of the project emerges as it appears in the current phase. Thus the figures have changed. At the same time, it is crucial to bear in mind that a number of important studies still have to be performed before a description of the final project will be available. It is also necessary at certain points in the process to say, "What does the project look like today?", which will be done in connection with the decision concerning ownership and the transition to the project's third and final phase. Describing the project's status requires extensive and cohesive work. Therefore there are certain points in the development of the project at which crucial decisions have to be taken.
In order to be able to assess whether the project remains economically sustainable, an overall price estimate must be drawn up based on a wide range of input from studies and analyses and the conditions under which the project operates. For example, a number of the conditions have changed since the earlier price estimate from February 2008:
- The project has gone from 3 hydroelectric power plants to 2
- Considerably fewer people are needed to build the project (2600 against a previous figure of more than 5000)
- We know a lot more about the hydrological and geological conditions for the sources of hydropower
The above are just a few of the factors that have an influence on an updated price estimate.
The field studies include both technical studies, as well as studies in connection with the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). With regard to the EIA, it is expected that in spring 2010 a draft of the EIA report to be presented by the project will be available for public consultation.
The technical studies have focused in particular on hydropower. This is due to the fact that it is important to know how much energy is available and how the hydroelectric power plants are to be designed and configured. This is crucial if a new and more accurate price estimate for the overall project is to be drawn up. The amount of energy determines the capacity of the smelter, and the price of the hydroelectric power plants will be a significant factor in the economic sustainability (profitability) of the project - which will determine whether it is at all possible to create an economically viable project.
Based on these studies and provisional cost-benefit analyses conducted by Greenland Development, the project in its current design form (November 2009) has the following key figures:
|
Smelter |
400,000 t/a |
|
Energy supplied to smelter |
650 MW |
|
Employees at smelter |
600 |
|
Employees at hydroelectric power station |
50 |
|
Total expected no. of employees when project is in operation |
1100-1200 |
|
Max. no. of persons (peak) in construction phase |
2600 |
On the basis of these figures and several detailed calculations, an updated price estimate is to be drawn up in the near future. This price estimate will be incorporated into the financial analyses that will be utilised in a decision on ownership in the spring session of Greenland's parliament, Inatsisartut, in 2010.
New price estimate also imminent
Although some of the sub-results from the field studies are available as described here, the calculations for a new price estimate have not yet been completed. This will be available along with a basis for decision concerning ownership. The more detailed conditions for the price estimate will be described in the basis for the decision.
